Autonomy in government hands

Governments and not car-makers will steer the future of autonomous vehicles, according to one of the most forward-thinking executives in the motor industry.

Even though workable self-driving will come on stream in as little as five years, Dr Ian Robertson says there are huge hurdles to clear before they are ready for mainstream motoring.

And, says the government advisor and former global head of BMW marketing, who is now BMW’s special representative to the UK, Australia will not be immune to the disruption and it is politicians who will have to decide how and when autonomous cars are approved.

“Are we ready for a machine making a decision on the outcomes of a collision? There are big implications here,” Robertson told us from Europe.

“I believe that, in the long term, the regulators will step in and set boundaries about how far we can go. It might be to allow it only on motorways, as they are the most controlled environments.

“It depends what regulations the Australians want to adopt. What will apply in the rest of the world will apply,” he explained.

Robertson has been grappling with the autonomous questions for more than five years, as BMW has a large range of self-driving test cars already in action and has been demonstrating autonomous vehicles on roads outside Munich to journalists to highlight its technology.

Robertson describes autonomous vehicles as one of the greatest disruptors in the history of motoring.

“I think they are inevitable. It is the next big technology challenge. And out of that will come benefits.

“Within the next five years the technology will mature to the extent that it can be applied in most situations. But not all… Then it depends on other factors,” he opined.

Robertson spoke recently in the UK about the choices that would eventually face autonomous cars and their potential impact on society.

“Imagine a scenario where the car has to decide between hitting one person or the other — to choose whether to cause this death or that death. What’s it going to do? Access the diary of one and ascertain they are terminally ill and so should be hit? I don’t think that situation will ever be allowed.

“Then there is the overarching consideration of the regulators that we need to consider. In the UK, the government is encouraging autonomous testing — even if some of its fundamentals go against the Highway Code, the fabric of our laws. They know we are in a race to take leadership and that opening up to testing could have significant benefits.”

Robertson is aware of the advantages of autonomous vehicles, particularly for trucks and buses, but says there are still many questions to be answered.

“There are big implications here that aren’t necessarily in the thinking today.”

He also says it will be a very long time before there are enough autonomous cars to make a significant difference outside freeways or corralled campuses where they are isolated from human-driven cars.

“There are currently one billion cars in the world with another 100 million every year. It will be a long time before there is a sufficient amount of technology or application of technology.

“We are working in a scenario where it has to be perfect. If we are working towards a ‘brain off’ scenario, where perhaps we expect travellers to even sit in the back of the car and relax, then that clearly isn’t possible today, despite what some might tell you.”

Even so, Dr Robertson predicts that development will accelerate rapidly in coming years towards an autonomous end game.

“There is sufficient interest from some governments to move the technology along. It’s not just the car companies, either, but also Silicon Valley,” he said.