According to recent reports from Navigant Research, an American research organisation specialising in emerging clean technologies, global sales of hybrid and electric trucks will reach an annual figure of 105,000 by 2020, while the number of natural-gas-powered trucks and buses on the road will reach 3.7 million by 2022.
The hybrid and electric commercial vehicle market experienced a surge from 2008 to 2011, says Navigant Research, due to government stimulus programs in the US and greater interest in alternative fuels due to the wider roll-out of hybrid and battery-powered cars.
The company says annual global sales of hybrid and electric commercial vehicles is set to rise from 10,000 in 2013 to 105,000 by 2020, as technology and reliability in the niche improves, and bottom-line benefits grow more compelling.
Lisa Jerram, a senior research analyst with Navigant Research, says attractive total cost-of-ownership figures are key to the wider acceptance of alternative-fuel vehicles in the commercial market.
“The fleet market tends to be quite conservative, as fleet managers thoroughly examine new technologies prior to adoption,” she says.
“The key to market sustainability will be to focus only on those applications that provide the greatest payback or other ancillary benefits, and to ensure that the technology is sufficiently reliable for the fleet market.”
Navigant Research says a total of approximately 350,000 hybrid and electric trucks will be sold globally from 2013 to 2020.
The upturn comes too late for US firm Smith Electric Vehicles, however, which suspended production at its Kansas City manufacturing plant at the end of 2013, citing cash flow issues. Maker of the Newton (pictured) and Edison electric trucks, the firm set up shop in 2009 after receiving a $US32 million grant from the US Government’s Department of Energy.
Greater gains are being made in the CNG (Compressed Natural Gas) and LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) truck and bus market, says Navigant Research. The number of CNG and LNG trucks and buses on the world’s roads is expected to rise from 1.5 million vehicles in 2014 to 3.7 million by 2022, as the technology matures and the infrastructure supporting it expands.
Dave Hurst, a principal research analyst with Navigant Research, says the segment has a bright future.
“Natural gas vehicles are largely being driven by four key forces,” he says.
“These include the economic benefits, the increased availability of vehicles, the environmental benefits, and the growth of the refuelling infrastructure.”
Navigant Research says the refuse truck, day-cab truck, and transit bus markets are especially well suited to CNG/LNG technology, due to their high fuel usage and shorter vehicle cost payback periods.