Commercial transport fossil-free by 2050?
It’s in the timeframe for the Paris Agreement, but it’s going to take a mighty effort from the public and private sectorsA fossil-free commercial transport system by 2050 is not only possible, but also financially attractive from a social perspective.
That’s the conclusion of a comprehensive Scania-sponsored analysis, which indicates that several pathways can be pursued to phase out carbon emissions. The research covers three transport segments: long haulage, distribution and city bus, and four countries: Sweden, Germany, China and the US.
The key conclusions of ‘The Pathways Study: Achieving fossil-free commercial transport by 2050’ are:
- Smarter logistics: Carbon emissions can be cut by more than 20 per cent by optimising systems. Eg improving routing and load management. The remainder can be reached with alternative powertrains and fuels.
- Electrification: Battery electric vehicle growth constitutes the most efficient, quickest and cost-effective pathway in countries with the infrastructure potential to provide universal charging systems and non-fossil energy. Full-scale electrification will require significant infrastructure investment relative to the present situation. In return, operating expenses are 40 per cent lower than for heavy diesel vehicles. Electric highways for long-haulage transportation can accelerate electrification, particularly in the coming decade when the cost of battery costs is expected to remain high.
- Biofuel: These will initially offer an effective and viable pathway, taking advantage of traditional combustion engine technology. The technology and fuels are both available here and now. With maximum possible use of globally available biofuel supply, biofuel-based combustion engines can power one-fifth of vehicles in 2050.
- Fuel Cells: Since fuel cell vehicles will be more expensive, substantial growth for this pathway is expected to be later than for battery electric vehicles. If cost of technology decreases and renewable hydrogen is available and plentiful at low cost, by 2050, fuel cell can be a substantial part of the vehicle fleet.
READ THE FULL WHITE PAPER HERE
“Reaching zero CO2 emissions in our sector in the timeframe of the Paris Agreement is attainable but will call for change at an unprecedented high speed, and for serious and joint private and public sector commitment,” says Henrik Henriksson, Scania’s President and CEO.
“We see several fuel and powertrain pathways to a fossil-free future. Biofuels offer the fastest CO2 emissions reductions and electrification is the most cost-effective.”
Based on the findings from The Pathways Study, a coalition of companies is being formed with the ambition to further accelerate the speed of change and to lead the change starting here and now.
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